How The Iran War Actually Ends

Nine consecutive nights of US airstrikes. A full naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran moving nuclear centrifuges into a mountain no bomb we currently have can reach. The Houthis announcing a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia today. Seventeen Americans dead in five months. But how do you take all this information and use it to understand where this is going?

 In this video I walk through the four possible directions this conflict takes from here, ranked from least likely to most likely, with the specific indicators to watch that tell you which branch you're actually on before the headlines catch up.

I also cover the oil reserve clock that nobody is connecting to the timing of this conflict clearly enough. That creates a hard deadline for resolution that is measured in weeks not months and shapes the likelihood and timing of every branch on this tree.